Some thoughts on this season’s competition
It’s the biggest, best (in terms of financial reward anyway) and most sought-after competition in European football. And this year’s Champions League looks as tough to call as ever.
Nonetheless, Matt Snelling and I have drafted a few predictions ahead of the big kick-off. Please note that any duplication has not occurred due to Pakistan cricket-esque “irregular behaviour”, but simply because we’re both either like-minded top pundits, or laughably delusional. May 2010 will reveal the answer to that question.
Champions:
Chelsea
Slightly biased I know, but I’m going with Chelsea. It’s never quite happened for the Blues over the years, with a combination of bad luck and outright choking leading to succession of near misses, combined with a fine record of losing in semi finals.
This year though, there seems to be a more relaxed approach. There’s no real evidence to back this up, so call it a gut feeling if you like, but it just appears that some of the sheer desperation to win the Champions League has gone. The Double last year has helped quench the trophy desire a little, and the side certainly has experience. If Frank Lampard, Michael Essien and Didier Drogba stay fit, Roman Abramovich could finally get his oil stained mitts on that most wanted trophy.
Also, not that I want claim my prediction skills are anything to write home about (because they’re not – see my World Cup effort for evidence) but I went for Inter at the beginning of last season using a similar instinct-based method, and that seemed to come off…
Away from Chelsea, it’s hard to look past Mourinho securing another winners medal with Real Madrid, and obviously Barcelona have an obscenely talented squad that will be difficult to stop. (JP)
Barcelona
Increasingly in football, when asked to name who you think will win something, it’s very hard to be in any way original. The proliferation of money and by extension the best players at a handful of clubs means that you are often picking from a decidedly small list. With that in mind, this pick isn’t exactly revolutionary, but in my opinion you would be hard pressed to look past Barcelona for likely champions.
They may have come unstuck against an obdurate Inter Milan in last year’s semi-finals but for most if the season they looked almost as imperious as in their treble winning campaign the season before, especially as they went along smashing records domestically. Yes, if you park the bus they can be frustrated, yes, their passing can be over elaborate and *sometimes* a little too sideways, and yes if you were playing them, they probably don’t like a bit of physicality and ‘up and at ‘em’ football.
However for all of that read a team that includes the nucleus of Spain’s triumphant World Cup squad, read a team that has Pep Guardiola as manager, and read a team sheet that will most likely include the following names; Puyol, Pique, Dani Alves, Xavi, Iniesta, Mascherano and Villa...oh yes, and a certain Lionel Messi. When you have the world’s best player, simply put, you are rightly considered the favourites for any tournament that you enter. (MS)
Top scorer:
David Villa
I could potentially just copy and paste what I wrote during our World Cup preview here, as I put Villa down to be top scorer then to. The new Barcelona signing is definitely a man who came out of South Africa with his reputation greatly enhanced. Villa is a cold, calculating, lethal finisher, arguably the world most proficient taker of chances in terms of 21st century football.
Whilst nothing in life is guaranteed, it is almost impossible to think that the World Cup winner won’t be a prolific addition to a Barcelona team known for creating a multitude of scoring chances. Much will depend on how he combines with Messi (something the now departed Zlatan Ibrahimovic was never truly able to do) but again, would you bet against him being anything other than a roaring success? (MS)
Lionel Messi
Top scorer is always a real stab in the dark, so I’ll play safe and say Lionel Messi. His scoring record in the competition is already quite tidy to say the least, and it’s almost impossible to see Barcelona being stopped anywhere before the quarter finals as an absolute minimum. Using the same logic, David Villa can’t be ruled out, and I anticipate the other front runners to consist of the usual big names.
It’s quite sad really, but one the most notable things about the Champions League (and I’m aware that I’m not the first person to point this out) over recent years is that it’s all fairly predictable. Aside from Porto in 2004, it’s primarily been the major European sides lifting the trophy, and the top scorers tend to come from these teams. So Drogba, Wayne Rooney, Diego Milito and Ronaldo all look strong candidates for this one. (JP)
Dark horse (that’s a team):
Benfica
As just stated, the Champions League tends to be a rather predictable affair, so it’s tricky to pick out a genuine dark horse. As much as I’d like to see Bursaspor, MSK Zilina and CFR 1907 Cluj-Napoca upsetting the big sides, I can’t quite see it happening.
Also, a lot of the promising teams who have qualified for this year’s campaign have seen their best players taken away from them. Werder Bremen have sold star man Mesut Ozil to Real Madrid, Valencia’s David Villa has finally moved on from the Mestalla and FC Twente have lost influential manager Steve McClaren (no sniggering please).
Something similar has happened to Benfica, who let go Ramires and Angel Di Maria for big money during the summer. However, the squad still contains some considerable talent, notably David Luiz, Fabio Coentrao, Javier Saviola, Pablo Aimar, Oscar Cardozo and erm, Freddy Adu…
Also Benfica’s group, while tricky, lacks a genuine big club and if they start well then I fancy them to get the better of Lyon, Schalke 04 and Hapoel Tel-Aviv. After that, it will all depend on the draw, but if goes favourably then maybe they can reach the quarter finals. That’s about as far as I see any dark horse going.
Group B also hosts another of the dark horses though – in Klaas-Jan Huntelaar and Raul, Schalke have a potentially exciting strike-force, and could be set for a decent run. (JP)
Benfica
Last season’s Portuguese champions claimed that trophy in style, playing a vibrant attacking brand of football which combined the club’s many South American imports into a formidable outfit. It’s a team set up to score goals, and there were some impressive performances along the way in the club’s Europa League campaign last season. Just ask Everton fans how impressive the team can be when they turn on the style.
With a big man/little man combination of Oscar Cardozo and Javier Saviola up front that would have Peter Reid drooling, just in front of the reinvigorated little playmaker Pablo Aimar you can see why the goals flow. At the back fullbacks Maxi Pereira and Fabio Coentrao were both stars at the World Cup, whilst both the Brazilian centre backs Luisao and David Luiz are men in demand. The loss of Argentine winger Angel Di Maria to Real Madrid is a blow, but watch out for his compatriot Nicolas Gaitan, a stylish attacking midfielder freshly arrived from Boca Juniors.
Playing in a group that looks competitive and well matched, if their attacking desires can be matched with strength at the back, they could be a real outside shot for serious progression. (MS)
Player to watch:
Not to cheat or anything, but this will be just a selection of young players to watch, who you may not be overly familiar with. A lack of familiarity on my part means you’re getting less blurb (OK no blurb) but you can maybe impress your mates saying you heard of these guys first. Well, not that I’d take my word for it of course...
Philipe Coutinho (Inter Milan)
Nicolas Gaitan (Benfica)
Radosav Petrović (Partizan Belgrade)
Douglas Costa (Shakhtar Donetsk)
César Azpilicueta (Marseille)
Jack Wilshire (Arsenal)
Jeffrey Bruma (Chelsea)
If any of these players make big names for themselves this season, you know where to come to send the compliments. If we never hear of any of them ever again, well, you didn’t hear them form me OK? (MS)
Mesut Ozil
After seriously impressing at the World Cup, Mesut Ozil is poised to excel in this season’s Champions League. He secured a big move to Real Madrid, and if he settles quickly then Ozil certainly has the ability to be one of the tournament’s best players.
Other names to look out for include Ozil’s team-mate Angel Di Maria, and perhaps less obviously, Robinho at AC Milan. Clearly Robinho was a massive flop at Manchester City, but there’s still some considerable talent there and I get the impression the lifestyle and setup at Milan might suit him a bit better than Newton Heath. It’s also hard not to see David Villa doing really, really well at Barcelona. (JP)
Big name to flop:
Inter Milan
In terms of teams, this one is particularly awkward to call, as I really can’t see any of the Champions League stalwarts crashing out in the group stages. I’m going for Inter though, simply because I don’t fancy them to replicate last year’s success.
I still expect Inter to get out of Group A, even though it is one of the trickier ones, but without the Portuguese Man o’ War in charge I don’t anticipate them successfully defending their trophy. So in a way, I’m also picking Rafa Benitez as the big name flop. As Mourinho has helpfully pointed out, there is “no possible way” Benitez can better his performance at the San Siro. The Spaniard is clearly a very capable manager, but on leaving England he seemed to leave Liverpool in a worse position then when he started. Obviously European competition is a Benitez’s speciality, and he still has a very good squad in place, but I think the ghost of Mourinho will haunt him, resulting in a difficult season. (JP)
Inter Milan
As ever with the Champions League, there is a lot of hype and bluster and so almost inevitably you are going to get people, teams, the entire competition perhaps failing to live up to the hype. With that in mind, I’m nominating Inter Milan. Perhaps expecting them to ‘flop’ would be as Ray Wilkins might say, a ‘tad harsh’ but given their historic treble success last year, it’s going to be hard for any sort of repeat performance this time around.
Obviously there is no more ‘special one’, and while I think Rafa Benitez is a good manager, despite the travails at Liverpool last season, he is going to struggle to emulate his predecessor’s success. Not much has changed about the squad, which could be both a positive and a negative depending on the way you look at it. It’s a very experienced, strong squad, still possessing the striking talents of Diego Milito, Samuel Eto’o, and the promptings of creator Wesley Sneijder all backed by a rock solid backline. On paper, they look well placed to repeat their success, but that nagging part of your brain tells you that they cannot, surely have the season they did last time around. As I say, I don’t see them particularly flopping, but likewise I don’t see them having the incredible season they did last time out. (MS)
Most successful league:
Spain
It’s the predictable choice, yet this really looks a straight toss up between England and Spain. Clearly Italy produced last year’s winner, and Serie A has experienced a resurgence of sorts, but La Liga and the Premier League still look the strongest leagues. Although, perhaps controversially, I refute the claim that the Premier League is “the best league in the world” (TM Sky Sports and every ex-player and pundit from a red top). With Mourinho at Real Madrid, and Barcelona boasting most of the world’s best players in their squad, it really is the two Spanish giants that will surely set the bar for this season.
Despite a relatively disappointing campaign last year, the English sides remain strong, and expect the quarter finals to be dominated by Madrid, Barca, Chelsea, Manchester United and Arsenal. (JP)
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