With 2011 rapidly drawing to a close and with us at the point in the season (i.e. Christmas) when in popular parlance the title and relegation can be decided by looking at whomever has possession of top spot and who find themselves ensconsed in the relegation zone we can perhaps start to draw some sort of conclusions to where the main prizes will be handed out come May.
So with that in mind, I thought it would be interesting, albeit peeking through my fingers, to look back at the predictions that were made at the beginning of the season on this blog and see just how right (or indeed wrong) I’ve been so far. I also thought it was worth looking at what we know now and deciding whether to stick or twist with my opinions and perhaps make some new predictions
For a reminder of what was written (and so you can see that I’m hopefully telling you something resembling the truth) you can follow this link:
http://collinsbeans.blogspot.com/2011/08/premier-league-20112012-predictions-and.html
So without further ado let’s start at the very top and note that it was Manchester City that I had down as walking away with the Premier League trophy. What with them being top at the time of writing that’s not a bad start for my Nostradamus credentials and I’m fairly happy to keep them as my pick for the title.
Now at the beginning of the season you might think “well, picking Man City to be title winners – not exactly a punt in the dark” however to defend myself, even those who expected City to do well (and let’s be honest when you have a squad that costs approximately £800 billion you’d be thinking you might be worth a shout) could perhaps not have seen them being quite this dominant. Despite stuttering in a tough Champions League group, results like winning 6-1 at Old Trafford have been breath taking and despite their city rivals still being in close proximity you wouldn’t want to bet against City getting their name on the Championship Trophy
Premier League Champions
August 2011 Prediction: Manchester City
January 2012 Prediction: Manchester City
So onto my predictions for the three other teams that should make the Champions League, and back in August I went for Manchester United, Chelsea and Arsenal. Like my choice for champions I am reasonably happy with that (well, it wasn’t going to be Wigan was it?)
However that’s not to say that all those clubs have always been impressive, far from it in fact. Manchester United started very brightly and if you look back at what people were saying back in September you might have well as handed out the medals already. A lack of creativity or indeed substance in central midfield has led to a whole series of uninspiring 1-0 wins and an early exit from the Champions League but ominously for the rest they have never stopped winning.
Chelsea’s travails have been well documented and the issues have appeared to come from a new young manager trying to impose a new way of playing on an aging squad very set in their ways. Whilst talk of a crisis is overplayed and the white elephant that is Fernando Torres still sits uneasily in the room there is enough quality for a top four finish and signs that Andre Villas Boas, if given time (never usually a guarantee at Chelsea) is starting the evolution that the club needs.
Back in the summer, and even more so in the aftermath of their 8-2 humiliation at Old Trafford the traditional “this is the season Arsenal drop out of the top four” predictions were out in force. Not from me...although before I stick to my guns too much the emergence of Tottenham to their North London rivals is perhaps Arsenal’s biggest threat. Despite Wenger’s mad trolley dash on transfer deadline day, Arsenal’s squad still looks a disjointed one, and Tottenham have been mighty impressive, with a dynamic mix of pace and vibrancy propelling them into contention for the top spots. With the men from the Emirates (that’s Arsenal rather than Man City) horribly reliant on one player (no, not Marouane Chamakh) I’m going to change slightly and say that Tottenham pip their neighbours to that fourth place spot
Champions League Qualifiers
August 2011 Prediction: Manchester United, Chelsea and Arsenal
January 2012 Prediction: Manchester United, Chelsea and Tottenham
Thus the knock on effect for Europa League qualification is...
August 2011 Prediction: Liverpool and Tottenham
January 2012 Prediction: Liverpool and Arsenal
Turning our attention to the bottom of the table then and those who could be facing the dreaded drop the trio’s cards that I hard marked were Wigan, Blackburn & QPR. Back in August all these teams looked vulnerable but QPR’s position in my bottom three predictions was more in line with who owned the club back in August rather than who owns them now. My view was that the bizarre Formula One management team that controlled the club would be responsible for dragging them down with little investment meaning the cub attempting to stay up with a number of Championship standard players. The owner stayed and some Premier League quality (Wright-Phillips, Young, Barton etc) arrived and they have performed much higher than my expectations. They are solid, hard working and difficult to break down, and yet the lack of goals, despite Heider Helguson going above and beyond the call of duty means I still think they will be involved in the relegation shake up.
As many predicted, Blackburn has been an absolute car crash this season and as many might also argue they are getting what they deserve for the under hand way they got rid of previous manager Sam Allardyce whilst bringing precious little of what anyone might consider ‘quality’ into the squad. How Steve Kean is in a job is beyond me, but even his level of incompetence and the way that things were orchestrated for his arrival don’t seem to justify the sheer level and scale of the vitriol and abuse the man has received that might even make Gary Glitter flinch.
Blackburn look doomed but far less predictably their North West rivals Bolton have struggled badly so far and rather ominously Owen Coyle looks powerless to stop the rot. It was argued that a difficult start to the season was behind their struggles but they are now losing to everyone rather than just the top teams. Another team from the North West on the brink are Wigan and I’m happy to keep with my August prediction that this is the year that they slip out of the top league. In recent weeks they have shown more back bone and a revival but too often once their foreign legion of random characters concedes one a hiding is usually on the cards.
Back in August I said that; “People often like to say ‘the three promoted teams; as something of a default but I think that the way that both Norwich and Swansea play, by retaining the ball and building form the back will enable them to perform well against sides which, on paper at least are stronger than them.” Right now, and not to get too smug, that doesn’t sound to be bad a shout of what’s actually happened so far and I am happy to keep them and Wolves (just) out of my January bottom three predictions.
So let’s stick to my guns and say;
Relegated
August 2011 Prediction: Queens Park Rangers, Blackburn and Wigan
January 2012 Prediction: Queens Park Rangers, Blackburn and Wigan
The popular consensus at the beginning of the season was that West Ham would be nailed on certs for promotion...however I decided to fly in the face of popular opinion and I didn’t have them in my three to go up. At the time I thought that the squad that struggled badly in the Premier League and not been strengthened sufficiently to support the sky high expectations. While I thought then, and think now that they will be in the play offs, I believe that Sam Allardyce’s style (or lack thereof) will see them struggle to beat teams that defend well against them.
The team that I thought would win the league or would certainly be in the top two was big spending Leicester and as we get ready to enter 2012 their performance has been a massive disappointment. The vast array of new signings have failed to gel and Sven never seemed like the right fit to get a team out of the hustle and bustle of the Championship. Under Nigel Pearson they will improve, and no doubt there will be some new arrivals in January but I don’t see them getting up this year now.
I’m happy that I called Cardiff to have a good season and Malkay MacKay looks to be doing a terrific job in getting a young team with few big name reputations into the promotion shake up. My other choice to go up Blackpool have been horribly inconsistent but on their day can beat anyone and the best team that I’ve seen live in the division this season so far. I’m expecting them to do big things in the new-year.
The team I didn’t see coming was newly promoted Southampton, yet using the momentum from last season, and playing an attractive passing game they have taken the division by storm. With imperious home form and the talents most notably of Adam Lallana and Ricky Lambert they are my January pick to replace Leicester on who I think will reach the promised land.
Promoted
August 2011 Prediction: Leicester City, Blackpool and Cardiff City
January 2012 Prediction: Southampton, Blackpool and Cardiff City
If we’d have been making predictions back in August at who would be making the most headlines this season then this guy would have been a great shout on my part, however I had him pegged as top scorer and while Luis Suarez has been brilliant (on the pitch) this season his goal scoring record is nowhere near what it should be given the sheer volume of chances he has created for himself. He’s hit the woodwork umpteen times and basically been at the heart of everything good (on the pitch) that Liverpool have done yet I think I would be changing my prediction even without his eight game ban looming large. Instead there is only one man you can look at to be top scorer in 2012, the man who was a goal machine in 2011: Robin Van Persie
Top Scorer
August 2011 Prediction: Luis Suarez
January 2012 Prediction: Robin Van Persie
The last two predictions are no longer really relevant but I’m happy with one and was way, way off the mark with other. I said back in August that the signing of the summer was Sergio Aguero and I believe that after a quiet period by his exceptionally high standards that he will be the man that fires City to the title. Honorable mentions should go to anyone out there who back in August picked any of these men as great signings as all have been top draw so far:
Juan Mata
Demba Ba
Johan Cabeye
Michel Vorm
Scott Parker
The first manager I had down to be sacked was Neil Warnock, which while laughable now was as I stated above based on if the regime running the club hadn’t changed. To be honest though I think anyone who went for Steve Kean should be pretty annoyed that they didn’t get that one right.
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