With the Premier League’s twentieth campaign now under way it’s time for the CollinsBeans pundits to put their money with their mouths are and bring you our 2011/2012 predictions (disclaimer: if in 10 months or so these are horribly (and hysterically) wide of the mark, the authors have the right to distance themselves from the comments being made here)
James Platt
Champions: Manchester United
Unlike some pundits, I don't think Manchester United will walk the league by 30 points, but they do look like the best equipped of all the sides this season. Ashley Young will probably do very well, and they have some good young players who must all be hungry for success. However, they were not that great last season and it was one the lowest standard Premier Leagues in recent years. Plus David De Gea, while a great prospect for the future I'm sure, currently looks nervous and like an accident waiting to happen. So I think it will be close again. with Manchester City and Chelsea definitely looking like the other leading candidates.
Champions League qualifiers: Chelsea, Manchester City, Liverpool
See above in terms of Manchester City and Chelsea. My prediction for the top four is:
1. Manchester United
2. Chelsea
3. Manchester City
4. Liverpool
I'm loathed to write Arsenal off completely, as every year recently they seem to defy the odds and play great football - not good enough to win trophies, but good enough for a top four finish. However this year you have to say they look a bit ropey. It's not so much the loss of Fabregas (thank goodness that saga is coming to a closeby the way and won't bore us all senseless for another season) but more the lack of any sort of signing in the areas they need. Clearly the transfer window is still open, and they have time to buy the right players, but right now they don't look like top four material.
I think Liverpool will be a long way off the title, but may be good enough for fourth spot.
Europa League Qualifiers: Arsenal, Tottenham
As it stands, I'm going to say Tottenham won't finish higher than sixth. They haven't added any quality and Luka Modric may well end up leaving in the next couple of weeks. Unless a top class striker is purchased, it's hard to see where the goals will come from on a regular basis.
I'm going with Arsenal for fifth place, due to the reasons listed above.
Relegated: Wigan, Swansea, QPR
Hard one to call this, as there are many teams thatappear weak this season. It's difficult to look beyond the promoted teams, yet Blackburn and Wigan really don't inspire confidence either. Blackburn's main hope is that Steve Kean gets sacked early, and the Venky's Chicken brigade appoint someone a bit more convincing.
QPR look like a real mess at the moment, and so I'm saying Swansea and Norwich of the promoted teams have the best chance ofstaying up. I don't really like him, but there is something about Paul Lambert which makes me think he could scrape survival.
Wigan haven't replaced Charles N'Zogbia, sothey will struggle again, however good a manager Roberto Martinez is. Newcastle look a bit vulnerable too, but they should have enough.
Promoted: Leicester City, West Ham, Brighton
The Championship is notoriously impossible to predict, and this really is like picking names out of a hat. Anyone can beat anyone. One of my predictions last season was Middlesbrough, so it's safe to say that no one should be putting any money on this.
With all the cash Leicester have spent they really should be getting promoted, and I think they will. The reality with football is that if you throw enough money at something, you usually get what you want. West Ham are another obvious choice, but they do have some quality players for this league and Sam Allardyce is a horribly effective manager.
It's a bit of flyer, but I'm going with Brighton through the playoffs as well. They have been much talked about, and there is something about them at the moment - they just have a lot of momentum and Gus Poyet looks like a great young manager. Blackpool proved last season that when things starts to go your way in this league, anything can happen.
I reckon Blackpool, Nottingham Forest and Ipswich could all come close.
Top scorer: Fernando Torres
This will either prove to be a genius piece of punditry, or a hilariously misguided oversight. He's been widely written off, but I don't believe Fernando Torres has suddenly become a bad player and if he gets an early goal or two, his confidence will soar. Torres at his best, in a strong side, could score a lot of goals.
Wayne Rooney is the more logical choice for this one, and he will be up there again I'm sure. As will Darren Bent, and I think Luis Suarez could rack up quite a few as well.
Signing of the summer: Ashley Young
Young has always possessed a lot of potential (I'm remember seeing him as a tiny 17 year old playing for Watford and being pretty impressed even then), but last season he really developed into a more consistent player and at Manchester United I think he will be really influential.
In terms of others, uttering the immortal line - if Jonathan Woodgate stays fit, he could be a great addition for Stoke. Depending on how quickly he settles, Sergio Aguero could also be very exciting for Manchester City.
First manager to be sacked: Steve Kean
It has to be Steve. He wasn't convincing last season and Blackburn have not been particularly active in the transfer market. You get the impression that the players don't really trust or respect Keen, and as soon as results go wrong they could turn on him.
Neil Warnock is another decent bet, not because I think he's a weak manager, but because QPR's ownership structure seems so confusing and disorganised that you could see Warnock being dismissed having not done much wrong.
Matt Snelling
Champions: Manchester City
A potentially controversial call, but I’m prepared to stick my neck on the line and say that the millions (or rather billions) from Abu Dhabi have what it takes to bring the Premier League title to the blue half of Manchester.
I think it’s going to be tight, with cross town rivals and reigning champs United looking refreshed and impressive...but in the straight Manchester shoot out (apologies for the rather unfortunate phrase considering the timing) I think the winning of a trophy last season will see a shift in mentality, similar to how Jose Mourinho winning the League Cup in his first season had a galvanising effect on Chelsea.
The signing of Sergio Aguero, a genuine top quality player adds fantasy and invention to a team that was solid and hard to break down last year, and if they can add the guile of Samir Nasri to connect the defence and forward line into one cohesive unit (last year they often seemed to play as two separate parts) and Mancini goes out to win games a bit more rather than just not to lose them then I think they have what it takes.
Champions League qualifiers: Manchester United, Chelsea, Arsenal
I put Manchester United much further ahead of the other two, and as I’ve outlined in my Champions prediction, I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see them finish top come May. As for the other two Champions League places, Chelsea are an interesting proposition given that they have a fresh and exciting new manager in charge...and yet they have the same tried (or should that be tired) and trusted that they’ve had for years.
They are still a force to be reckoned with, strong determined players, and you feel that the stagnation of last season will be removed by the dynamism of the new man at the helm, Villas-Boas but there has yet to be, at time of writing, any significant new additions to the playing staff. They will be defensively sound but to take them back to the top you feel that a more creative presence is needed in midfield and that the ball needs to be moved quicker from back to front. The big question also remains; what to do with Fernando Torres? After his first summer off for a long while, and a full season behind him it’s now or never in terms of delivering the performances that his talent and reputation are capable of.
I could have copied and pasted this line in from a season prediction from any of the last few years, but many are declaring that Arsenal will struggle and are certainties to drop out of the top four. Well, I certainly don’t consider them to be title challengers, but have to laugh at the last rites that are read out to them every year. Each time we are told that they will fall apart after big departures (this time likely to be at least one of, if not both Cesc Fabregas and Samir Nasri) but the system that Arsene Wenger has in place always seems to plug the gaps with fresh new recruits, after selling players at the right time.
I think Arsenal are a better side than Tottenham and also don’t believe the hype being blown Liverpool’s way with their raft of big priced, yet not significantly better than average acquisitions...however while I think they are good enough for a Champions League place (and that the signing of Gervinho from Lille is a shrewd one) the stubborn and ridiculous failure on Wenger’s part to address the key issues of having rubbish goalkeepers and shaky centre back’s mean that the title will be out of reach.
Europa League qualifiers: Liverpool, Tottenham
As mentioned in the Champions League qualifiers, these two are not up to the standard to break into the top four places. Tottenham are no stronger than last season and have yet to add to a forward line that while impressive on paper (well to those who think Peter Crouch and Jermain Defoe are actually top quality strikers) was pathetically abject last time out. Harry Redknapp has done a very good job at the club and their adventures last season in Europe were impressive, but failure to move on the tons of deadwood around the place (I’m looking at you Bentley/Jenas/Keane) means that the manager hasn’t had much room to manoeuvre in the market place.
Which couldn’t be more different to Liverpool who have been on something of a spending spree this summer, and yet, aside from the excellent Luis Suarez (actually signed in January) most of the imports look decidedly mediocre.
Relegated: Wigan, Blackburn & QPR
People often like to say ‘the three promoted teams; as something of a default but I think that the way that both Norwich and Swansea play, by retaining the ball and building form the back will enable them to perform well against sides which, on paper at least are stronger than them. QPR are on the other hand could struggle badly in my opinion.
They were promoted on the back of an exceptional defensive record, but in the Premier League where teams counter attack and devastating pace and where a number of the teams don’t give you the ball back if you give it away. Despite having very rich owners there has been little of quality coming in through the door (relying on Crystal Palace players might not work as well as did in the Championship).
Wigan have been teetering on the edge of relegation for a couple of seasons now and while I like Roberto Martinez there has been no-one of quality come in to replace Charles N’Zogbia. Likewise, Blackburn’s squad looks as thin as an anorexic supermodel and Steve Kean inspires about as much confidence as Chris Hutchings.
Promoted: Leicester City, Blackpool & Cardiff City
Cheap plug! For my reasons please see CollinsBeans Big Championship preview here:
http://collinsbeans.blogspot.com/2011/08/big-championship-preview.html#more
Top scorer: Luis Suarez
There were doubts when he first joined Liverpool about whether he could hack the physical demands of the Premiership, but in his first few months he emphatically proved that was far wide of the mark. Coming off an outstanding and victorious Copa America campaign with his country, Suarez (providing he doesn’t suffer burn out post Christmas) could light up the Premier League this year. In fact you wouldn’t be surprised to see him top the assist chart too.
Signing of the summer: Sergio Aguero
I know, I know, this is being written in the wake of his awesome ‘2 goal-1 assist’ cameo on his debut but I was going to put this all along...honestly...Aguero is the outstanding arrival in this years’ Premier League and a genuine world class player signed by Manchester City. Whereas first off they were plashing out big money on people like Emmanuel Adebayor and Craig Bellamy, but now with the offer of Champions League football they can add players who are the real deal. Aguero is top quality and marquee addition to English football.
First manager to be sacked: Neil Warnock
And through probably no fault of his own. Warnock, having done an amazing job at getting QPR into the league to start off with and after being given no money will be removed by trigger happy and often idiotic owners that will get twitchy after results like the opening day defeat to Bolton. Expect Claudio Ranieri to be brushing up on those English skills as we speak.
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