Friday 2 July 2010

The Big World Cup Debate – Argentina vs. Germany









It's time for the third chapter in our epic series of World Cup debates. This time, Matt Snelling and I give some views on who will emerge victorious from Saturday’s mouth-watering quarter-final clash.

Argentina – James Platt

Strengths

In terms of attacking quality, where do you start? Gonzalo Higuain is the tournament’s joint top scorer, Angel Di Maria has quietly impressed more and more with each game, Carlos Tevez bagged a brace in the last round (alright the first was a mile offside, but the second was a stunner), Juan Veron is stroking the ball around imperiously. Oh, and they have the best player in the world too (that’s Lionel Messi by the way, not Martin Palermo) – and he is still to hit top form. It’s easy to forget Sergio Aguero and Diego Milito are also ready and waiting on the bench if Plan A goes wrong. Not bad is it? Kind of makes Heskey, Crouch, Defoe and a woefully underperforming Rooney look even more pathetic…

This could technically be filed under ‘Weaknesses’ as well, but I’d say the general performance and aura around Diego Maradona is a real strength too. Many (including me) doubted Maradona pre-tournament, but so far he’s got everything pretty much spot on. I am still not convinced he’s any sort of master tactician, but just look at the relationship he has with the players. Everyone gets a massive hug and kiss at the end of the game and the squad, to a man, look honoured and thrilled to be playing under him. It must be a bit special being managed by your ultimate idol, which I’m almost certain Maradona is for the entire 23 men. There is something about Argentina – they all appear to be pulling in the same direction. They all seem proud to be playing together for their country. They believe anything is possible.

In terms of more specific tactics, I think the pace of Argentina’s attack is a real asset for this game too. As impressive as Germany were against England, they lack speed in central areas, and Jerome Boateng looked a real weak link at left back. Plus, Argentina have a genuinely top class defensive midfielder in their side in the form of Javier Mascherano. Unlike Gareth Barry, Mascherano lives for the grim satisfaction of destroying opposition attacks, and has the positional play to limit Germany’s main attacking weapon, Mesut Ozil. Mascherano is also cynical and dirty – not attributes that immediately seem laudable, but crucial in stopping potentially dangerous attacks. If you don’t have players with this attitude, good teams will destroy you on the break. For evidence, see England.

Weaknesses

Undoubtedly Argentina’s main weakness is their defence. It just isn’t very good. Martin De Michelis, to put it bluntly, is rubbish. I’ve never been convinced the man is a centre back, and this tournament is proving that hypothesis correct. Di Michelis, especially when isolated one-on-one, appears slow, lost and cumbersome. In general, the entire back four is far from convincing, even if Nicolas Otamendi is a massive improvement on Jonas Gutierrez at right back. Germany’s attacking play has been impressive to date and Klose, Ozil et al must fancy their chances against this line up.

Another weakness is that Argentina haven’t really played anyone good yet, or been properly tested. Nigeria, South Korea, Greece and Mexico – all decent sides but certainly not world heavyweights. Argentina have yet to go a goal down either, and it will be very interesting to see what happens if they fall behind against the Germans. Certainly their mental resolve is untested to date.

Why Argentina will win

Not to back out now or anything, but I do genuinely think this one is almost too close to call. I reckon Argentina might just edge it though, due to the excellence of their attacking line-up, and the passion the team has under Maradona. Germany are good, very good in fact. But I’m not sure if the German defence can deal with all of Argentina’s pace and quality.

Germany will certainly cause Argentina problems defensively, and the optimist in me is predicting a high scoring game, with Argentina edging it 3-2. Whatever happens, it promises to be a fascinating encounter. And if it goes to penalties, my prediction completely changes – it’s Germany all the way.

Germany – Matt Snelling

Strengths

Being German I guess. Sorry, hard to resist the temptation, but all jokes (and clichés) aside, German strengths continue to be about being a tournament side, being able to cope when the pressure is on, and delivering results when they are not expected to. Sort of like the anti-England in, well, pretty much every way. But that is all too simplistic, and the real strengths of this German team are summed up in the fact that the average age of the squad is just 23; this is a team with youth, vitality, exuberance and no little style.

Germany have been able to successfully integrate several members of their victorious European U21 side, revitalising a squad that even though it reached the final of Euro 2008 was starting to look decidedly one paced. Germany’s key strengths are in attack, where they break at speed and where they move the ball quickly. The two key players thus far have been midfield lynchpin Bastian Schweinsteiger and 21 year old schemer Mesut Ozil.

Schweinsteiger was brought up as a winger, but having been moved inside he has blossomed into a superb all round midfield player, capable of passing, tackling, dictating play and scoring goals. His step up to be the hub of the team means that thus far, injured captain Michael Ballack has not been missed. At the beginning of the tournament, the Werder Bremen youngster Ozil, was being tipped as a name to watch. If only his opponents had watched him closer. An intelligent, direct, tricky, creative attacker, Ozil has been at the heart of basically every good German moment thus far, and he has played a key role in the vast majority of his teams goals.

At the top of the pitch, Germany also have players who know how to score at international level. Both Miroslav Klose and Lukas Podolski may not be what people call ‘world class’, and they may both be coming off pretty terrible seasons with their clubs, yet you can’t deny that they never let their country down. Both have sensational strike rates at the highest level and Klose’s tally of 50 goals in 99 caps is phenomenal. Indeed there is the potential for the man of Polish origin to overtake Ronaldo’s record of goals at World Cup finals. Argentina’s key weaknesses are at the back, and even though neither of Germany’s front two are exceptional on paper, the truth remains that you know they are both always lurking for a goal.

Their final strength is their manager. Much has, and will continue to be made about the man in the Argentine hot seat, but Germany manager Joachim Low deserves an awful lot of credit for all the fantastic work he has done with the National team, both as assistant to Jurgen Klinsmann and as the manager in his own right. Tactically sharp and extremely quick witted he has built a dynamic side, set up to attack it’s opponents and exploit their weaknesses.

Weaknesses

For all their ability going forward, the fact remains that in this tournament, Germany have been extremely vulnerable looking at the back. There’s certain parallels with their opponents in that regard, but you just wonder if Germany have enough to deal with Argentina’s plethora of striking options. The role of Philip Lahm will be crucial. A world class fullback, comfortable on either the right or the left of the defence, you have to think that he will be required to deal with the not so inconsiderable threat of one Lionel Messi, mainly because Germany’s other full back options look limited. Neither of the left backs used so far, Jerome Boateng or Holger Badstuber have impressed and you have to feel that both may crumble at the sight of any of the Argentine forwards running in their vicinity.

It doesn’t get much more secure in central defence either, with neither Per Mertesacker or Arne Friedrich looking secure. Both are comfortable with the ball in the air, but on the ground? Not so much. They also look vulnerable because of the lack of real protection in front of them. Both Schweinsteiger and his central midfield partner Sami Khedira have been in great form, but neither are what you would call a defensive, holding player, and Germany can be ‘got at’ in this area. Low decided to dispense with the tough tackling Torsten Frings, who performed this role at the last World Cup and it remains to be seen if this was the right call or not. For all the talk that his absence may be a blessing in disguise in terms of ‘speeding the team up’ the loss of Ballack to the centre of midfield is an issue which may only be felt in these biggest of games. Ballack’s experience and his ability to control the tempo of the game (even making it slower if required) could have been a useful weapon, and I think the fact he is not there is definitely a weakness.

Whilst the mentality of German football is often to be seen as a great strength (and indeed I have highlighted it above) in a way, looking at recent years you may have to readdress this a bit. Yes their record is something most other sides would kill for, but the fact remains they seem to have slipped into a position of ‘always the bridesmaids’. Germany in a way have become serial runners up for things, and while they inevitably get to the latter stages of tournaments they seem to have lost that killer instinct when it comes down to the finishing line. This current side are young and explosive, but over the last few years, whenever Germany have come up against a top international side (and no, I’m not talking about England) they come up short. Very successful campaigns in 2002, 2006 and 2008 all ended that way, when faced with a side at the top of their powers (and you could argue that Argentina are getting there) they have not been able to muster the required class to keep out players with more talent.

Why Germany will win

"Football is a simple game; 22 men chase a ball for 90 minutes and at the end, the Germans always win"
Gary Lineker

This is one of the most vibrant and exciting German teams I have seen in my lifetime, and they have goals in them, lots of goals. Argentina are weak at the back, and Javier Mascherano could be heavily overworked in central midfield. Veron is starting to show his age and the energy that Germany can bring to bear in this position could wrestle the game in their direction. If Schweinsteiger can get on top of Veron, then that’s probably the best way of stopping Messi; stopping the ball getting to him. Lahm is key, without him Messi will run riot, but the German captain has the ability to live with the small magician and if he can be snuffed out then so can Argentina. Maradaona has done a great job in this tournament so far, but on Saturday will be coming up against someone in Jogi Low who has the tactical acumen to really test the Argentine legend. If Low throws something unexpected out there, will Diego be able to react?

Finally, and despite the premise of this site, allow me one last cliché; why Germany will win – how many times have we seen games in the latter stages of tournaments go to penalties? I rest my case.


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